BERITA DAILY LETTER: From Dr Jayson, via e-mail
There are a total of 18 seats in Perak, Pahang, Johor, Selangor, Kedah and Penang, which have not been subject to redelineation, and where Indians votes can be considered kingmakers in GE14.
Of the 18 seats, there are 14 – seven each in Penang and Wilayah Persekutuan where Indian votes make up more than 10%. Will these votes not be critical for either party?
The opposition, in particular, have declared their confidence of winning by comfortable majorities in the six states mentioned earlier. I suspect this is because they are banking on the Indian votes to make the difference.
Post-delineation for Kedah, Johor, Selangor, Perak, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, there still are many constituencies where ensuring the Indian votes go to the opposition is critical. Take Merbok in Kedah. It has 18% Indian voters, while Sungai Petani has 12% and Padang Serai 23%.
With the Malay votes split between Umno and Pakatan Harapan, the Indian votes will clearly make the difference between changing the federal government or keeping BN for another five years.
Now, let’s look at the impact of Indian votes in the other states, shall we? Of the 14 seats in Johor, Indians represent 10% or more of the votes in Kluang, Simpang Renggam, Pulai, Gelang Patah (Iskandar Puteri) and Kulai.
In Selangor, for the 18 parliamentary seats up for grabs, Indian votes make a difference in 14 of them. The numbers range from 11.5% in Hulu Langat and Bangi to 29.5% in Kota Raja.
Only in four seats are our votes small – Pandan (6.6%), Damansara/Petaling Jaya Utara (7.4%), Ampang and Tanjung Karang (9.9%).
It’s the same story in Perak. The Indian votes range from 10% in Kampar to 49.42% in Baru Gajah. There are only four seats with below 10% Indian representation – Larut, Parit Buntar, Gopeng and Ipoh Timur.
Of the four seats up for grabs in Negeri Sembilan, Indian votes range from a minimum of 13% in Tampin to 22% in Rasah. And finally, for the two seats in Melaka, Jasin has 10% Indian representation while Alor Gajah has 13.5%.
It is a known fact that majority Chinese votes will go to the opposition, while the Malay votes will be broken between BN, PPBM, PKR and Amanah and the undecided Indian votes from the semi rural and rural will dictate the necessary swing needed.
Let me reiterate that redelineation or not, Indian votes make a bigger difference in GE14 as more than 50 parliamentary seats in the semi rural and rural areas hinges on how the Indian votes swing.
And it warrants specific Indian representation through Hindraf in semi rural and rural areas due to the trust factor that those communities have similar to Mahathir with the rural folks. This is a growing sentiment among Indian voters who fail to see why the NGO is just a “strategic partner” to Pakatan Harapan rather than being coalition partner and legislative representative.
A growing Indian voice is asking why Hindraf is not being fielded to contest in any seat? Are Indian votes so cheap and sentiments taken for a ride that the opposition believes the community can be taken for granted? Let’s see what happens.
If so, my vote will not be decided until the time for voting.